The claim of 99.999% is so utterly ridiculous that I can’t believe anyone seriously wrote it.
However, Anthony’s put together a very concise summary debunking this whole “it must be man-made” claim. The 1910-1940 warming is key – because that warming must be largely natural, and by inference whatever caused that could easily be responsible for the 1970-2000 warming. How unlikely that is depends on the noise model you assume, however based on my assessment I’ve always (since at least 2009) said that “the 1970-2000 warming is entirely consistent with natural variation and cannot be distinguished from noise”.
According to the authors,
“there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304 months [25.3 years] (our analysis extends to June 2010) with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average.”
Fundamental problems with this claim [which is basically the falsified IPCC attribution claim of 95% certainty on steroids] include:
There is no statistical…
View original post 773 more words