The Weather Isn’t Getting Weirder

Found this article in the trash. I can’t remember why it wasn’t published, but given the latest IPCC I thought it worth reminding everyone that there is no evidence of increasing extremes.

I remember it well because the researchers had gone looking for increasing trends and were surprised to find none. However, unlike many others they reported this fact, which means their research is all the more credible.

The project’s initial findings, published last month, show no evidence of an intensifying weather trend. “In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years,” atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871.”

In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict. “There’s no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has affected extreme weather,” adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of Colorado climate researcher.

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1 Response to The Weather Isn’t Getting Weirder

  1. Simple messages like this need to get into the wider public arena – it’s hard for people to realise what’s going on otherwise. Those checking sceptic or truly scientific climate science blogs are a tiny minority. I try to spread the word with letters in The Australian, the national newspaper in Oz. Their giving a big splash recently to a long article by Judith Curry was something of a breakthrough. Her latest blog – IPCC diagnosis – permanent paradigm paralysis – is excellent, she has taken a stronger stand than ever before, concluding that “the precautionary principle demands that we not take any risks here, and hence the IPCC should be put down.”

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